Discuss the appeal, and the dangers, of attempting to predict the future. ('01)

Since time immemorial, the idea of predicting the future has always been a tantalizing one. Be it looking at the stars to speculate the stability of a country or the simple interpretation of dreams to learn about one's destiny, humans have always been caught up with learning about the future. However, it is their preoccupation with this mysterious art that that they have failed to realize its potential dangers. While precognition is enticing in many aspects, the pitfalls it entails is far too egregious for us to handle.

The ability to see into the future can help us avert cataclysmic disasters and save the lives of many. In the case of major natural events like earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, violent floods, disease epidemics, tsunamis, drought and soil erosion, failure to predict the future can translate to death, sufferings and loss of loved ones for many. On the contrary, successful predictions of disasters can be a great boon to mankind. One well-known successful earthquake prediction was for the Haicheng, China earthquake of 1975, when an evacuation warning was issued the day before a 7.3 earthquake. The China State Seismological Bureau accurately predicted the occurrence of the earthquake and evacuated about a million people from the affected province. Clearly, the impeccable accuracy of such prediction of natural disasters can help mitigate the potential damages the disasters may pose. Under such circumstances, many innocent lives can be saved and this is incontestably beneficial to humanity.

However, it must be cautioned that attempts to predict the future are mere speculations and in themselves, hypothetical. There exist an element of uncertainty in every single prediction. Oft-times, predictions of the future are inaccurate and this can result in devastating damages to mankind. In the instance of natural disasters, use of advanced science equipments and weather forecasting may be able to predict the occurrence of a disaster, but the exact time and date that it will occur is often uncertain. The recent 8.9 earthquake in Japan was predicted to occur on 29th March, but it went off on 11th March and took the lives of many. High high death toll, homelessness, lack of food and basic sanitation, nuclear disaster and economic crises are concomitant with the failed prediction of the major earthquake. Evidently, the failed attempt in making an accurate prediction resulted in the inability of the Japan authorities to take necessary precautions in time to mitigate the devastation of the earthquake.

Unreliable predictions can also cause unwarranted fear and trepidation in humans. Predictions have often been made, from antiquity until the present, by using paranormal or supernatural means such as prophecy or by observing omens. Such predictions are often made without any scientific proof and analysis, and fear can be easily struck into the hearts of humans if the predictions are gloomy and cataclysmic. In extreme cases, escalating fears and apprehensions may even result in social instability and violence within a community. The "Planetary Conjunction" prediction in the early 90s is one such example. Respected meteorologist Albert Porta predicted that on December 17, 1919 a conjunction of six planets would cause "a magnetic current that would pierce the sun, causing great explosions of flaming gas and eventually engulf the Earth" This prediction, which turns out to be false ultimately, led to some mob violence and a few suicides. Another incidence in which prediction about the future can strike fear in humans can be seen in the "1910 Haley Comet" prediction. Even though the Haley's Comet had been visible many times without any reported deaths, the passing of the comet on May 18, 1910 was predicted to be a deadly threat to people because of poisonous gas coming from its tail. This caused apocalyptic panic, but eventually it turned out to be a false prediction based on religious claims. Clearly, such predictions without any concrete scientific evidences can easily instill fear in humans. The threat of imminent disasters causes humans to cower in fear everyday, and this may even cause permanent damages to their psychological health.

From a more philosophical point of view, it is ironic that humans value freedom and control and yet still seek predictability. On the face of it, it would seem that the two are related: if I can predict, I can control. However, if we view that the future is pre-determined, then it would mean that the future cannot be changed and we are mere puppets living out the life that is designed and specially tailored for us. Complete predictability would leave us with no need to pay attention to anything any longer. If one's prediction of his future, by a fortune teller or sorcerer for that matter, is one that is blithe and successful, he would have no motivation to work hard at all. Similarly, if one's prediction of his future is gloomy, he will see no point in trying to improve his well-being and will simply fester. The ability to predict the future leaves no surprises in life and life becomes meaningless. A husband can predict what his wife is going to give him for his upcoming birthday; a son can no longer surprise his mum with his good grades at school because his mum can easily predict it; surprise farewell or welcome parties become redundant because everyone can predict it happening. These little surprises are what make our lives meaningful and interesting, and without them, we are just going through the motion of life and life simply becomes mundane.

Irrevocably, the ability to predict the future can bring us many benefits if predictions are accurate. However, it can be easily noted that predictions in our millennium is still highly unreliable and brings minimal benefits to mankind. In comparison, the negative ills of predicting the future are much worse, especially with the many trepidations it brings. "Yesterday is history. Tomorrow is a mystery. But today is a gift, and that is why it's called the present." The quote from box-office movie Kungfu Panda aptly captures the idea of living each day to the fullest. Perhaps, we should slow down our quest of looking into the future and learn to be contented with the blessings of today.